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| Misleading Poll Stats via the NDP in the Edmonton Journal - Polls Dated September 15-18 & August 15-18 2015 |
This past week those of us in Edmonton were treated to some
advertisements paid for by the New Democratic Party (NDP) of Canada. The ads
highlighted that according to the NDP, Edmonton was in a two-way race between
the Conservatives and NDP… with the Liberals in a very distant third.
They highlighted this by specifically showing polling
information on only three (3) of the ridings in Edmonton… (Let us understand
that Edmonton has more then three: Edmonton West, Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Strathcona, Edmonton Riverbend,
Edmonton Mill Woods, Edmonton Griesbach, Edmonton Manning, St
Albert-Edmonton, and Edmonton-Wetaskiwin)
Thus, one has to ask how Edmonton is a two-way race when
they only point out three of the ridings. Additionally, another two questions
that leave me, and others, wondering are: 1) How does this truly reflect the
three ridings when they are doing an ‘aggregate’ of all three together, and
(most importantly) 2) Why are the polls they are citing for Edmonton Centre for
the dates September 15-18th and the one for Edmonton-Griesbach from
August 15-18th. In other words: How factual are these polls when
they are from 3 weeks and 7 weeks ago.
(The Edmonton Region is not the only area in Canada the NDP has done this in the last 2 weeks)
Backgrounder:
In early August (lets remember that August 15-18 is only two
weeks into the election) was when the NDP were leading in first place according
to majority of polls being presented at that time. Additionally, the NDP have
been steadfast in the lead in Edmonton-Griesbach for months with it looking
like Janis Irwin was a definite for heading to Ottawa come October 19th.
Additionally around this time and the first half of September, the NDP (with
Aaron Paquette) was dominating in Edmonton-Manning, the NDP Candidate in Lethbridge also looked to win over the Conservatives, and the NDP were slightly
ahead (according to the polls) of the
Liberal Candidate Randy Boissonnault in Edmonton Centre. Let’s also note that
originally, at the time the poll for Edmonton-Centre was taken, Gill McGowan
was yet to be the NDP’s candidate in the area.
Forward to October
11, 2015:
Since September 15-18th the NDP have witnessed a
steady decline to 3rd place standing (this is what all polling
companies seem to highlight with their poll results since the end of
September). Majority of polling also show that it is now, nationally, neck-in-neck
for the Liberals and Conservatives. In relation to Alberta – the Conservatives
are dominating the scene – with the chance of Liberals making breakthroughs in
3-4 ridings in Calgary (Calgary-Centre, Calgary-Confederation, Calgary-Skyview
and Calgary Forestlawn), and the NDP and Liberals trading between each other
for potential ridings in Edmonton (NDP are leading in Edmonton-Strathcona and
looking like it is a toss up between Conservative Kerry Diotte and Janis Irwin
in Edmonton-Griesbach). In relation to Edmonton-Manning, the NDP and Liberals
seem to be tied for a distant second-place (which I do find quite unfortunate
because I do think the voice of Aaron Paquette in Canada’s H.O.C would be not
only amazing but important on dealing with rectifying the tattered
relationships between Canada and Indigenous nations). The Liberal candidates in
Edmonton-West (Karen Leibovici) and Edmonton Mill Woods (Amarjeet Sohi), both
have the potential to win above the Conservatives (with the NDP being a distant
third in both).
The Edmonton-Centre
Factor:
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| Via threehundredeight.com - October 10, 2015 |
Now, lets turn to Edmonton-Centre – where the NDP have also
used misleading and outdated polling data. The NDP have tried to make it look
like the race in Centre is between Gil McGowan and James Cumming (the Conservative
Candidate)… with supposed signs that Randy Biossannault is a distant third.
This is where that aggregation comes in that the NDP used from polls dating to
August 15-18 and September 15-18 (when the NDP were leading in Griesbach and
Manning) – it allows for them to skew the standing of the race in
Edmonton-Centre where other aggregates and discussions relating to Centre has
consistently shown it either to be a close race between the three (which
relates back to early September polls – with the NDP and Liberals going back
and forth for first or second) to today where results are highlighting that it
is now a close race between the Liberals and Conservatives with Randy
Biossannault being the one to hold first place currently, followed by James
Cumming in second and Gil McGowan in third.
For instance, according to the Hill Times: “And there could be Liberal surprises in
what were core Conservative seats in 2011. In rural seats, the Conservatives
won by 25 points or more in 2011, the Liberals have narrowed the gap to eight
points. In seats the Conservatives won by 15 to 25 points four years ago,
the Liberals trail by just two points. In Edmonton and Calgary the
Liberals are now 11 points ahead of the NDP and just eight points behind the
Conservatives.” (https://www.hilltimes.com/polling/2015/10/09/conservative-ndp-hopes-dim-as-liberals-dare-to-dream/43705)
Conclusion:
Some of you will now state: “But wait, the Alberta
Federation of Labour released a poll (through Environics) saying Gil has the
best chance”
Here is the thing with the AFL Poll: Sampling size, and
whether or not it actually polled areas specifically favourable to the NDP and
Gil McGowan needs to be thought of and considered. Additionally – lets not
forget who had worked for the AFL before becoming the NDP’s preferred
candidate: Gil McGowan.
Lets just understand – I would also call out polls that
would specifically favour Liberals (many friends have heard me express caution
over Nanos because I have found it to always put the Liberals a bit further
ahead then they actually are). This is why if I opt to look at polls I do
prefer to look at updated assessments of them that also average out the polls –
such as 308.com.
Thus, I want to express people to be cautious with polls –
especially ones paid for and distributed by political parties. They have
traditionally and always been problematic, as the newest tactics by the NDP in
Edmonton highlight.
I also want to express, especially in Edmonton-Centre – to
be cautious with the manipulation of these polling aggregates as they are no
longer factual in the last week of the election.
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| Self Explanatory |
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